(Gap, Lowe’s, and Best Buy may have raised wages in some specific locations or for specific positions, but our methodology was not able to capture more localized gains.) But at the remaining seven companies, real wage gains were small or even negative. At six of the companies, wage increases were substantial even after adjusting for inflation, ranging from 7% to 10%. In assessing the magnitude of raises, it is helpful to compare them to industry average gains for all workers: 5% in inflation-adjusted terms between January 2020 and October 2021 in leisure and hospitality and 2% in retail. (Assuming the 13 companies did not raise wages further in the last month, the average wage increase would have been just under 3% through November.) Without inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, the average pay increase would have been 10%. Over nearly two years as workers faced a global pandemic, the average wage increase, in real terms, at the average company we assessed was only 3% through October. Since January 2020, inflation has risen over 7% through October 2021, and nearly 8% through November 2021.
But inflation has erased most of the average gains. We found that nominal pay (not factoring inflation) did increase, sometimes significantly, at all but two of the 13 companies. Inflation has erased at least half of the average wage gains for frontline workers We confirmed the data through direct company communications. Using company-wide pay policies, we calculated the nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) change in average pay at each company between January 2020 and the end of October 2021. (We conducted this analysis as part of a larger report on frontline workers in the pandemic economy, forthcoming in early 2022.) The 13 companies are all household names and among the most influential employers in their industries together, they employ nearly 5 million U.S. hourly workers at 13 of the largest and most profitable retail, grocery, and fast food companies in America. So, are frontline workers better off economically today than when the pandemic began? And if they are, is “better” even good enough for what they deserve? However, inflation-which is now the highest it’s been in nearly 40 years-is taking a large bite out of those raises and frontline employees are quitting their jobs at historic rates. Wages have risen, at least nominally, for many workers in supermarkets, warehouses, stores, and restaurants, and workers seem to be gaining leverage over employers. But in recent months, things have started to look up. Frontline essential workers have endured tremendous risks and made significant sacrifices to keep the country running during the pandemic, often for low pay. Media coverage about how American workers like Harris have weathered the pandemic offers mixed messages. I am being asked to do more people’s jobs than I already was before…Morale is on the floor and people are threatening to quit.” “My money isn’t going as far,” Harris told us in November, reflecting on the impact of quickly rising prices like gas and food.
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